In this conversation, William Ainslie sits down with Katarina Railko, a hospitality and aviation infrastructure specialist whose career has bridged airline-led hub development, airport experience design, and the business of large-scale events and conferences. Drawing on her work with hub carriers, terminal programs, and visitor economy strategies, she explains how the Bishoftu International Airport project moves from concept to a functioning, resilient hub. We explore how the plan balances site selection, phased capacity, finance, risk, technology, workforce, and seamless passenger journeys—while keeping an eye on what it takes to shift a region’s air network and catalyze trade and tourism.
What was the strategic logic for placing Bishoftu International Airport about 40 km southwest of Addis Ababa, and how did site selection weigh airspace, ground access, and future city growth? Can you share an anecdote from the site studies that changed the plan?
The 40-kilometer offset provides a clean operating envelope away from Bole’s saturated airspace while keeping ground access within a commutable radius for the capital’s workforce and visitors. The site balances runway orientation with prevailing winds and terrain, and it allows room for phased expansion without bumping up against dense neighborhoods. Importantly, it sits along corridors that can absorb future highway and rail links as the city’s footprint stretches southward. During early reconnaissance, a soil campaign flagged an unexpectedly soft subgrade in one planned midfield zone; that prompted us to flip the order of airside works and shift certain support facilities to more stable ground, preserving schedule and avoiding costly ground treatment. That one tweak became a template for sequencing decisions: protect critical-path work and give noncritical assets flexibility.
Phase one targets up to 60 million passengers by 2030 with about USD 12.5 billion in spend. What are the key capacity drivers behind that figure, and how will you sequence terminal, runway, and airside systems? Please walk us through the build-out step by step.
The phase-one capacity is driven by terminal processors scaled for peak-hour flows, dual-parallel runway operations readiness, and apron geometry optimized for fast turns and widebody-gauge swings. We start with enabling works—utilities, access roads, and a core apron—so airside civil teams can move unimpeded. The first terminal module comes next with scalable security, check-in, and baggage systems, plus a central energy plant sized to bolt on capacity. In parallel, we progress runway and taxiway packages to reach independent arrivals and departures, then commission nav aids and airfield lighting. Finally, we bring online cargo, MRO-adjacent stands, and hospitality touchpoints to stabilize operations before growing into additional terminal piers.
Ultimately BIA is designed for 110 million passengers a year. How did you model demand to justify that number, and which traffic segments—transfer, O&D, cargo belly—carry the growth? What metrics or sensitivity tests gave you confidence?
We built layered scenarios anchored in network growth from a strong hub carrier, rising intra-African connectivity, and diversified long-haul flows. Transfer traffic provides the backbone because of banked-wave connectivity, while origin-and-destination demand rises with tourism and commerce; belly cargo tracks long-haul frequency. We stress-tested against macro shocks, yield compression, and slower-than-expected fleet induction, ensuring the hub still clears service-level targets. We tracked peak-hour throughput, bank integrity, and minimum connect targets to verify we could protect the passenger promise even under strain. The full build is triggered only when those indicators sustain healthy margins over time.
How will BIA ease current constraints at Addis Ababa Bole International Airport, and what will transition operations look like in the early years? Can you detail the cutover plan, from route shifts to staff reallocation and ground handling?
BIA relieves Bole by taking pressure off peak banks and enabling runway independence, which Bole cannot readily achieve. The cutover starts with selected long-haul and feeder routes that build immediate connectivity at BIA, while Bole retains a curated set of services during ramp-up. We reassign ground handling crews in waves aligned with route transfers and mirror critical maintenance capability to avoid towing dependencies. Staff rotation cycles ensure knowledge transfer, while customer communications synchronize ticketing, lounge access, and surface transport between airports to minimize friction.
Ethiopian Airlines Group is the sponsor, with AfDB as Initial Mandated Lead Arranger. How are responsibilities split across governance, risk, and reporting, and what decision gates must each clear? Please give concrete examples of who signs off on what.
Ethiopian Airlines Group steers strategic scope, operational requirements, and stakeholder alignment, while AfDB leads the lender group on structuring, due diligence coordination, and compliance. Key gates include approval of the Project Information Memorandum and financial model by the sponsor, followed by lender credit processes led by AfDB. Technical design freezes require sign-off from the sponsor’s operations teams and the technical advisor, and procurement decisions pass through a governance panel that includes sponsor, advisors, and lender observers. Any material change in scope, schedule, or budget triggers a formal variation process that must clear both sponsor and lead arranger thresholds.
Dar Al-Handasah, KPMG, and Clyde & Co are advising on technical, financial, and legal fronts. What deliverables have each produced so far, and which ones directly changed scope or cost? Can you share metrics on savings or time gained?
Dar delivered the reference design, phasing logic, and early works definition, which allowed us to reprioritize enabling utilities and reduce rework risk. KPMG produced the financial model and the Project Information Memorandum, tightening the alignment between phasing and funding drawdown. Clyde & Co mapped the contracting strategy and risk allocation, clarifying interfaces that cut ambiguity in EPC packages. A notable shift was advancing site utilities ahead of vertical works, which simplified sequencing and helped preserve schedule certainty. While we’re not quoting figures, those moves sharpened the procurement calendar and de-risked early milestones.
You’ve released the Project Information Memorandum and financial model to lenders. What are the top three assumptions lenders challenged, and how did you respond with data? Walk us through one model stress test and its outcome.
Lenders zeroed in on ramp-up curves, operating cost profiles, and resilience of transfer banks under disruption. We responded with historic hub performance benchmarks, airline network plans, and contingency procedures that preserve connectivity. One stress test compressed transfer integrity in a peak bank to mimic irregular ops; the mitigation—dynamic gate allocation and recovery buffers—kept service levels within the operating envelope. Another lens looked at slower commercial uptake; phased capex and modular systems preserved coverage ratios and schedule discipline. The conclusion: the phased approach is the safety valve.
Prequalification of EPC contractors is underway, with bids due by mid-December 2025. What capabilities and past performance are you weighting most in scoring, and how will you stage the packages? Describe the evaluation steps and timelines in detail.
We weight complex-hub delivery experience, systems integration capability, and proven performance in live-ops environments. Packages will be staged around airside civils, terminal core and piers, MEP and baggage systems, and enabling utilities, with clear interface points. Evaluation runs through compliance screening, technical scoring, commercial assessment, and best-and-final clarifications, with governance checkpoints at each stage. The calendar aligns design development with bid windows so long-lead items can proceed without jeopardizing competitive tension. Prequalification ensures only teams with the right credentials reach the pricing table.
How will the financing stack blend development finance, commercial banks, export credit agencies, and institutional investors? Please break down expected tenors, hedge strategies, and covenants, and share any precedents you’re using as benchmarks.
The stack leans on development finance to anchor tenor and catalyze commercial appetite, with export credit agencies aligned to systems and equipment. Commercial banks provide flexibility for construction drawdowns, and institutional investors can complement with longer-dated paper post-commissioning. Hedging focuses on interest rate and currency exposures aligned with phased spend, and covenants are calibrated to milestones and performance tests. The structure mirrors proven large-hub financings, adapted to a phased greenfield with robust sponsor backing.
You’ve framed “cutting-edge technology” and “sustainable design” as pillars. Which systems—airfield, terminal, energy, baggage—are first-mover features, and what performance metrics will you track? Share step-by-step how these lower costs or emissions.
On the airfield, intelligent lighting and guidance reduce taxi time and fuel burn, while terminal-side, smart passenger processing smooths peaks and shrinks queuing. Energy uses a centralized, high-efficiency plant designed for future low-carbon inputs, with demand management embedded from day one. Baggage relies on modular automation with real-time tracking to cut mishandling and manual touches. We track turnaround times, energy intensity, and baggage reliability, then iterate through analytics to trim cost and emissions across each bank.
What’s the connectivity plan to make BIA a regional and intercontinental hub—bank structures, minimum connect times, and alliance partnerships? Please illustrate with sample wave schedules and targeted city pairs for year one and year five.
The plan revolves around well-timed morning, midday, and evening banks that knit together regional feeds with intercontinental departures. Minimum connect targets are built into stand planning and wayfinding so passengers can move quickly and predictably. In early years, we prioritize high-demand regional spokes feeding long-haul corridors; later, we deepen frequencies and add secondary city pairs as the hub matures. Alliance and code-share strategies broaden the network coverage without diluting the core wave integrity.
How will BIA catalyze trade, tourism, and regional investment in practice? Give concrete targets for cargo throughput, visitor growth, and FDI attraction, and describe the ecosystem—logistics parks, hotels, and training—that underpins those numbers.
The airport becomes a platform where logistics, hospitality, and skills ecosystems reinforce each other. A dedicated logistics precinct co-locates handlers, forwarders, and value-added services, while on-campus hotels and conference venues capture visitor spend and anchor events. Training centers churn out certified talent for ground ops and service roles, ensuring quality and consistency. Rather than headline figures, our focus is on readiness: build the ecosystem so trade flows and visitors convert predictably as capacity comes online.
What are the biggest execution risks—from land, utilities, and supply chain to regulatory and currency—and how are you mitigating each? Walk us through the risk register, early warning indicators, and contingency triggers you’ve set.
Land and utilities are sequenced as early works with clear right-of-way milestones, while supply chain exposure is tempered through diversified sourcing and buffer inventories on critical systems. Regulatory pathways are mapped with staged approvals tied to design freezes, and currency risk is addressed through hedging strategies aligned to spend. Our risk register flags owner, contractor, and shared risks with specific triggers, ranging from permitting delays to logistics bottlenecks. Early warnings include slippage in interface schedules, deviation from test results, or vendor lead-time shifts; each has a predefined response plan.
With AIF Market Days in Rabat on November 26–28, 2025, what’s your pitch to investors, and what commitments or term sheets would signal success? Share the milestones you aim to announce before and after that event.
The pitch is simple: a phased, sponsor-backed hub with clear demand drivers and a disciplined delivery plan. Success looks like firm indications from development finance, aligned export credit support, and serious engagement from commercial and institutional capital. Ahead of the event, we aim to confirm shortlist outcomes and advance key technical packages; afterward, we target term sheet convergence and a defined path to financial close. The message is momentum—designed, bankable, and ready to build.
How will you build and upskill the workforce for such a large hub, from ATC and MRO to hospitality and security? Please detail training pipelines, partnerships with schools, and metrics for local content and inclusion.
Workforce development starts with pipelines in aviation operations and hospitality, supported by partnerships with schools and training providers. We set clear competency pathways for ATC, ground operations, maintenance, and guest services, pairing classroom work with on-the-job mentorship. Inclusion is built into hiring and vendor programs so local talent and enterprises participate meaningfully. Progress is measured through certification throughput, retention, and service quality indicators that feed directly into operations.
Compared with other African hubs, where will BIA clearly differentiate—cost per passenger, on-time performance, or route breadth? Share target benchmarks and the operational playbook you’ll use to hit them.
Differentiation comes from precision in operations: reliable banks, fast turns, and intuitive passenger flows that cut waste. We manage on-time performance through stand allocation discipline, proactive maintenance windows, and a tight turnaround playbook. Cost efficiency comes from modular systems and smart energy use, while route breadth grows with disciplined partnership strategies. The goal is to deliver a hub that feels effortless to use and efficient to operate.
What will “day one” at BIA look like for travelers and airlines—check-in flows, security, baggage, and aircraft turnaround times? Walk us through the customer journey and the operations timeline from first arrival to last departure.
Travelers will encounter clear wayfinding from curb to gate, with staffed and self-service check-in options feeding balanced security lanes. Airside, intuitive concourses and visible gate information keep transfers stress-free, while lounges and hospitality touchpoints reflect local character. Bags track in real time, and recovery protocols kick in quickly if a bank hiccups. For airlines, ground time is supported by coordinated ramp teams and predictable slot adherence, so the first arrival sets the tone for a smooth last departure.
Looking to 2030 and beyond, what are the triggers for moving from phase one toward full 110 million capacity? Describe the demand thresholds, revenue markers, and construction lead times that decide the next build step.
Triggers combine sustained peak-hour loadings, strong bank integrity, and revenue performance that supports the next expansion without straining service levels. We watch the shape of demand rather than just totals: when bank peaks consistently push planned buffers, it’s time to add gates, processors, or stands. Lead times for core systems and structures mean decisions are taken well in advance, synchronized with procurement windows and workforce scaling. The mantra is expand just in time to protect the passenger promise.
Do you have any advice for our readers?
If you’re evaluating a project like this—whether as an investor, operator, or partner—chase discipline, not dazzle. Look for phased delivery anchored by real operational needs, governance that forces clarity, and technology that solves specific bottlenecks. In hospitality terms, the best hubs are those where the guest hardly notices the machine humming beneath them. Invest in that invisible excellence, and everything else—connectivity, commerce, and confidence—will follow.
