Katarina Railko is a distinguished figure in the hospitality and travel sector, having spent years refining her expertise across the tourism, entertainment, and large-scale event industries. As a key voice in the world of international expos and conferences, she possesses a unique vantage point on how global shifts—from fuel prices to regional instability—directly influence the flow of people and goods. Today, she joins us to break down the latest aviation data from the first half of 2026, offering her seasoned perspective on why the golden era of major hubs might be stalling while smaller regional gateways are finding new ways to flourish.
The following discussion explores the cooling growth rates across Europe’s airports, the surprising dominance of domestic travel over international routes, and the stark contrast between booming small airports and struggling traditional hubs like London Gatwick and Munich. We also dive into the operational hurdles, such as border control delays and geopolitical conflicts, that are currently reshaping the trajectory of European air travel.
Growth rates fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 as regional tensions shifted. How do you interpret this sudden deceleration after a strong start to the year?
The numbers tell a story of a market that was initially full of momentum but hit a significant wall as the year progressed. We saw passenger traffic across Europe increase by 2.6% in the first half of the year, but that figure hides a dramatic cooling period where growth plummeted from 4.3% in the first quarter to just 1.3% in the second. This slowdown is a direct consequence of the volatility in the Middle East, which has forced many airlines to cut capacity and navigate the heavy burden of rising jet fuel prices. It is a sobering reminder of how sensitive the travel industry is to macroeconomic shocks; when routes to a major region are disrupted, the ripple effect is felt across every terminal in Europe. The sensory experience of a bustling airport in March was replaced by a more cautious, subdued atmosphere by June as carriers adjusted to these harsh operational realities.
We are seeing domestic travel outperform international routes for the first time since the pandemic. What does this shift tell us about current passenger behavior?
This is a fascinating pivot because it marks the first time since the COVID-19 recovery that domestic passenger traffic, which rose by 3%, has outpaced international growth at 2.5%. I believe we are seeing a “flight to the familiar,” where travelers are prioritizing shorter, more predictable trips over the complexities of long-haul international journeys. Much of this is driven by a very resilient leisure market and those visiting friends and relatives, people who are determined to travel despite the rising costs. In the EU+ market specifically, we saw growth of 2.6%, but the domestic surge suggests that people are looking for ways to satisfy their travel itch without the stress of navigating today’s more complicated international landscape. It feels like a return to regional roots, where the convenience of a domestic flight outweighs the prestige of a global itinerary.
While major hubs like London Heathrow and Istanbul are seeing negligible gains, smaller regional airports are booming. Why is the industry moving away from these traditional gateways?
The era of the “mega-hub” is facing a serious challenge from agile, smaller airports that are catering to a different kind of traveler. While the largest airports handling over 40 million people grew by a tiny 0.8%—with London Gatwick actually falling by 5.2% and Munich declining by 4.2%—smaller airports grew at a much healthier rate of 8.6%. We are seeing massive spikes in places like Bratislava, which grew by an incredible 122.7%, and Stockholm Bromma, which saw a staggering 518.8% increase. This trend is being fueled by the selective expansion of low-cost carriers who are hungry for cheaper landing fees and faster turnaround times. Travelers are also voting with their feet, preferring the efficiency of a smaller terminal over the exhausting, mile-long walks and endless security lines often found at major gateways like Frankfurt or Schiphol.
Several national markets, like Iceland and Germany, are seeing passenger numbers retreat. What factors are behind these localized declines in an otherwise growing market?
The disparity between nations is quite striking and points to a mix of economic pressure and operational frustration. For instance, Iceland saw a 7.1% decline and Germany fell by 1.2%, which stands in sharp contrast to Slovakia’s massive 101.3% increase. A major deterrent we are hearing about is the unacceptable waiting times at Schengen Entry/Exit System border controls, which are becoming a logistical nightmare. When travelers are faced with unpredictable and long queues, it leaves a bitter taste and seriously undermines the reputation of those destinations as being welcoming or efficient. These “bottleneck” experiences are more than just an inconvenience; they act as a physical barrier that discourages repeat visits and can cause a national market to stall even when the rest of the continent is moving forward.
Looking at the performance of non-EU+ markets, there is a massive disparity between regions. How are geopolitical realities reshaping the travel map?
The map of European aviation is being redrawn by the harsh realities of conflict and regional stability. In non-EU+ markets, we saw vibrant growth in places like North Macedonia at 27.9% and Moldova at 21%, showing that there is still a massive appetite for travel in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. However, the shadow of war is inescapable, as evidenced by Israel’s passenger traffic falling by 19.2% and Georgia declining by 2.5%. It is a visceral reminder that the travel industry does not exist in a vacuum; it is the first to feel the impact of political unrest. These shifts are forcing airlines to be incredibly nimble, moving their fleets away from high-risk zones and toward emerging markets like Uzbekistan or Albania to keep their numbers afloat.
Beyond passenger traffic, freight and aircraft movements show a modest but uneven recovery. What do these numbers suggest about the broader health of European aviation?
The freight and movement data suggest we are in a period of cautious stabilization rather than a full-throttle expansion. European airport freight traffic was up a modest 0.7%, though it remains 11.2% above its pre-pandemic 2019 levels, led by strong performances in Leipzig and Istanbul. However, the 30.7% decline in freight at Paris-Charles de Gaulle shows that even the biggest players are not immune to logistical shifts. Aircraft movements rose by only 1% and still sit 1.5% below where they were in 2019, which tells me that airlines are being very careful about “ghost flights” and are prioritizing high load factors over sheer frequency. It’s a leaner, more calculated approach to flying that focuses on profitability and efficiency rather than just returning to old volume records.
What is your forecast for European air traffic through the remainder of the year?
I believe the remainder of 2026 will be defined by how well we manage the operational and macroeconomic repercussions of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. If jet fuel prices remain high and the geopolitical situation remains volatile, we will likely see a continuation of this 2.6% growth ceiling rather than a return to the 4.3% highs we saw in the first quarter. However, the appetite for travel is clearly there—we’ve seen record numbers of North Americans visiting Europe this summer, and that passion for exploration is the industry’s greatest asset. Success for the rest of the year will depend on airports solving the border control crisis and airlines continuing to lean into the resilient leisure and domestic markets that have kept the industry moving through these turbulent times.
